Research Areas

Research Report on Diwali Festival Sales 2025 by CAIT Research & Trade Development Society (Research Wing of CAIT)

The CAIT Research & Trade Development Society, the research wing of the
Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), conducted an extensive pan-India
survey across 60 major distribution centres representing Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3
cities. The survey assessed Diwali 2025 festival sales, consumer footfall, trader
sentiment, and the economic impact of GST rationalization and the Swadeshi call by
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi.
The findings reveal that both among business community and consumers,
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi has emerged as a strong Brand
Ambassador for GST relief and Swadeshi adoption and has an unprecedented
influence over the people having their unflinching confidence which has
culminated into an unprecedented surge in festive trade activity across the
nation, with total estimated Diwali sales touching ₹5.40 lakh crore, marking
the highest-ever festival season turnover in India’s retail and trading history. It is
also estimated that beside goods, the service sector which include primarily
packaging, hospitality, cab service, travel, event management,Tent &
decoration, manpower agencies, delivery sector etc. has also grown
considerably and it is estimated that this sector has generated a festive
business of about 65 thousand crores.
This surge not only reflects the strong recovery of domestic trade but also
demonstrates growing consumer confidence, the power of Swadeshi sentiment, and
the resilience of India’s non-corporate retail sector — a cornerstone of
Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
Methodology
• Survey Conducted by: CAIT Research & Trade Development Society, a research
wing of CAIT
• Duration: Navratri (29 Sept) to Diwali (20 Oct) 2025
• Coverage: 60 cities — capitals of all states and select Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities
• Respondents: Trade Associations, Individual Traders, Consumers
• Survey Parameters:
• Customer footfall & purchase pattern
• Product category-wise sales performance
• Impact of GST rate rationalization
• Influence of Swadeshi sentiment and local product preference
• Price dynamics, trader confidence & consumer sentiments
. Sustainability of increased consumption

Key Findings
1. Total Estimated Trade Volume
• ₹5.40 Lakh Crore worth of business generated during the Diwali season 2025 in
 retail trade of India conducted by non corporate- non agriculture sector.
• Marks a 25% increase over 2024 festive sales (₹4.25 lakh crore).
• Mainline retail accounted for nearly 85% of total sales, indicating a strong revival
 of brick-and-mortar markets.
2. Category-wise sales distribution
Category Percentage (%)
------------------------------------------------
Gold & Jewellery 10%
Grocery & FMCG 12%
Consumer Durables 7%
Electronics & Electricals 8%
Gift Items 7%
Sweets & Namkeen 5%
Bakery & Confectionary 3%
Home Décor 5%
Pooja Articles 3%
Fruits & Dry Fruits 3%
Furnishings & Furniture 5%
Footwear 2%
Ready-made Garments 7%
Textiles & Fabrics 4%
Rest of other items 19%
3. Impact of GST rate rationalisation
The reduction in GST rates across key consumer and retail categories such as
confectionery, home décor, footwear, and ready-made garments, consumer durables
and daily use items significantly improved price competitiveness and increased
purchase momentum.
• 72% of surveyed traders reported higher sales  volumes directly attributable to
reduced GST.
• Consumers expressed greater satisfaction with stable prices amid festive demand,
aiding consumption continuity post-Diwali.
4. Swadeshi sentiment & PM Modi’s call
Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s “Vocal for Local” and “Swadeshi adoption”
appeals resonated deeply across markets.

• Nearly 87% of consumers preferred Indian-made goods over imported items.
• A visible decline in demand for chinese goods was reported across all survey
cities.
• Traders noted that Indian manufacturers’ visibility and sales grew more than 25%
compared to last year.
This shift signals a decisive movement toward economic self-reliance, aligned with
the vision of Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
5. Trader & consumer sentiments
• Trader Confidence Index (TCI): 8.6/10
(up from 7.8 in 2024)
• Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): 8.4/10
(reflecting optimism about economic stability and spending capacity)
Consumers view their increased consumption as sustainable, supported by rising
disposable incomes and moderation in inflation which will lead to enhancement of
purchasing power with consumers.Traders expect this buoyancy to extend through
the winter and wedding season this year followed by another spell of festive season
from mid-January. Meanwhile, overall the markets will improve thereby increasing
capital flow with the business community enabling them to do more business. Such
a scenario will give boost to small & medium manufacturing sector which in turn
will empower employees and workers and will generate more employment.
6. Economic significance
• The non-corporate and non-agricultural sector has emerged as a central pillar of
India’s growth, driven by 9 crore small businesses, crores of small manufacturing
units and largest base of consumers.
• The Diwali trade surge is estimated to have generated temporary employment for
nearly 50 lakh people across logistics, transport, retail assistance, packaging, and
delivery.

• Enhanced rural and semi urban purchasing power contributed nearly 28% of
overall sales, highlighting deep economic penetration beyond metros.
7. Policy implications & recommendations
1. Support to domestic manufacturing and trading sector : Incentivize smallscale and indigenous manufacturers and traders through easier credit access and
GST compliance simplification.

2. Infrastructure Improvement: Strengthen logistics and warehousing facilities in
Tier 2 & 3 cities to support growing trade volumes.
3. Digital Enablement: Encourage digital payment adoption among small traders
through training and low-MDR policies.
4. Urban Market Planning: Local bodies should improve traffic, parking, and
encroachment management during peak festive seasons.
5. Sustain Swadeshi Campaign: Continuous promotion of Indian goods through
coordinated trade–government messaging.
Conclusion
The CAIT concludes that Diwali 2025 has set a new benchmark in India’s retail and
trading economy — symbolizing the fusion of tradition, technology, and trust in
Indian enterprise.
The festival’s extraordinary sales volume of ₹5.40 lakh crore reaffirms that India’s
non-corporate retail sector will be the key growth engine of the national economy.
This year’s Diwali stands as a major milestone in building an Atmanirbhar and
Swavlambi Bharat under the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Shri Narendra
Modi, strengthening both national sentiment and economic momentum.

Research Paper on Toy Retail

The past 18 months have been very eventful for the Toy Industry with many regulatory changes that aim at increasing the quality and safety of toys sold in the country and at the same time to ramp up local production to fulfil a growing local demand. In this new regulatory context and due to the COVID-19 pandemic international travel limitations and impacts on global supply chains, local retailers have very little /no inventory of toys to sell through 2021 and the upcoming festive season in India: this is because the stock keeping units (SKUs) manufactured outside of India are not able to reach the Indian Market.

This has had a significant adverse impact on the businesses and livelihood of small retail traders and MSMEs. The global toy manufacturers are wary that policy uncertainty in the light of recent regulatory amendments might create a long-term vacuum for availability of toys and the Indian children might be deprived of the latest innovation and wholistic basket of quality toys. Moreover, lack of a transition plan and a timely implementation of alternative solutions to overseas physical audits (as mandated under current regulations of BIS, FMCS) are creating supply chain gaps, shortages of inventory & permanent job losses in MSMEs and retail traders.

WALLED CITY AND ITS EXTENSION OF KAROL BAGH

SECTORS BEING PERMITTED TO OPERATE IN INDUSTRIAL AREAS IN THE CITY AS PER MCD 2041

In order to reduce/ control the Pollution levels in Delhi NCT, it is suggested to promote Non-Industrial activities in existing as well as in proposed new industrial estates as per MPD – 2041.

Non-industrial/ commercial activities that are being categorized and allowed as per MPD 2041 should be promoted and incentivized as

they fast track the transformation of the current industrial areas to non-polluting areas. On the lines of 54 sectors already permitted to

operate in the Industrial areas such as service based sectors, IT etc., Banquet halls should also be added to the category and should be allowed to operate in these areas.

High Conversion and FAR charges are the main obstacles/ hurdles that are not allowing the positive development of the Industrial areas from

polluting to non-polluting areas. The main aim of MPD 2041 is to better utilize current infrastructure, create better and new infrastructure,

reduce pollution and overall improve the entire Delhi NCT area.

MIXED USE IN URBAN VILLAGES AND UNAUTHORISED COLONIES

In MPD-2021, No Streets was notified under Mixed Use Regulations in Rural Villages. But at that time too many roads qualify to be notified as Commercial. But as it was not allowed in Rural Villages so the department couldn’t notify the same. Then came the NCT of Delhi Law (Special Provisions) Act which saved

these shops in rural area from Sealing.

Then on 21-11-2019 vide notification, 79 Rural Villages were been converted to Urban Villages. Now around 25,000 shops existing in these Urban Villages

qualifies to be declared under Mixed Use Regulation.

But the Draft of MPD – 2041 refrains from further notification of Roads.

PRE-1962 COLONIES & REHABILITATION COLONIES

There is a list of colonies in MPD – 2021 as well as in Draft MPD – 2041 title List of Pre-1962 colonies & Rehabilitation Colonies

There are few Colonies which were developed by private developed DLF in 1952-1958 such as South Extension, Green Park,

Greater Kailash. The name of these colonies have been left in the list published in the MPD’s.

Many Evidences / Proofs / Court cases are available that proved these colonies were developed

prior to 1962 and therefore the benefits of being Pre-1962 should be given to these colonies

MIXED USE CHAPTER / RETAIL SHOP IS MISSING IN DRAFT - 2041

This clause talks about Three types of Non-residential activities… -

a. Professional ;

b)  Other Activity

Where is the Third type ?

SUGGESTION –

THE THIRD TYPE OF ACTIVITY IS RETAIL SHOPS AND OFFICES WHICH HAS

BEEN OMITTED FROM MPD – 2041. WE SUGGEST THAT THE SAME

CHAPTER 15.0 SHALLED BE INCORPORATED IN MPD – 2041.

ALREADY NOTIFIED 351 STREETS

As per the provisions given in the Mixed use regulations, for the notification of commercial / mixed use street , in areas that have not been surveyed or have been surveyed but streets

have not been notified pursuant to notification dated 07/09/2006, local bodies shall be required to carry out within a reasonable time of notification coming into force,and with due expedition ,

and not later than 90 days , a survey of all streets of the mentioned width,if not already done , with a view to identifying stretches of such streets as commercial / mixed use streets.

After survey and Identification, notification of commercial/mixed use streets to be issued by the Urban Development Department GNCTD.

According to the provisions of Master plan Delhi- 2021, identification of 351 roads was done by the local body, but till date the notification of such roads as commercial /

mixed use has not been done.

Research Paper on SUGGESTIONS & OBJECTIONS IN MPD - 2041

1.NOTIFIED 351 ROADS SHALL BE INCORPORATED IN MPD-2041

2.MIXED USE CHAPTER / RETAIL SHOP IS MISSING IN DRAFT   2041

RESURVERY OF ALL ROADS UNDER MIXED LAND USE.

3.SMALL SHOPS –

a.To increase the size of Small Shop from 20 Sq. Mtr. to 50 Sq. Mtr.

4.PRE-1962 COLONIES –

a.Inclusion of Colonies like South Extension, Green Park, Greater Kailash which were developed prior to 1962 should be

included in the List provided at Annexure 13 of Draft MPD-2041.

5.DDA FLATS -

ENTIRE GROUND FLOOR OF DDA FLATS ON MIXED USE/COMMERCIAL STREETS SHALL BE ALLOWED .

Research Paper on Ease of Doing Business under GST

At the outset we are thankful to the government and the GST Council, for taking various measures in the GST Law in the last four years since its implementation as on 01/07/2017. We congratulate and are grateful to the Government for taking steps for the simplification of GST and easing of compliances in the GST regime as per the recommendations of the GST Council. Significant decisions were taken on the GST rate on multiple products as and when the trade approached and especially  during the COVID pandemic for granting relief to the taxpayers in 43^rd GST Council meeting. We appreciate that the Government has reduced GST late filing fees permanently and also announced GST Amnesty Scheme for July 2017 to April 2021, by reducing GST late filing fees to Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1000/- as the case may be and reducing the tax rates on various healthcare and related products.  

 However, there are still many issues which were raised a number of times but till date they are not addressed. If the issues are not addressed at earliest many business houses will close down which would result in unemployment and will affect GST collection adversely. This is evident from the GST collection falling below 1 lakh crores in the month of June 2021.

Research Paper on Government Notification of 2nd July for imposing Stock Limit on Pulses

Notification issued by Ministry of Consumer Affairs imposing a condition of stock limit of Pulses of 200 M/T for the Wholesalers and 5 M/T for the Retail Traders engaged in the business of the pulses. 

The above said notification is discriminatory and stands against the normal business practices of pulses trade in the Country. It is regretted that while issuing the notification, no consultation was held by the concerned officials with the stakeholders. We rely on the following points : 

1. There are about 5 lakh traders conducting business in food grains across the Country and providing employment to more than 23 lakh people mainly to uneducated class which is required for loading and unloading of the goods. About 5 lakh people also derive their livelihood indirectly from the food grain trade. 

2. here is a annual production of about 256 lakh tonnes of pulses in the Country and about 2o lakh Tonnes of pulses are imported every year from different Countries. 

3. In September,2020 the Government has announced that Essential Commodity Act or stock limit will be enforced only when the price of the pulses will be either 50% higher than the MSP or there is an emergency situation in the Country. 

4. Through a notification in 2017 it was made mandatory that stock limit of 6 types of pulses, “ Masoor, Chana, Tur, Urad, Moong and Kabli Chana will be uploaded on the portal of the Government which is being duly complied by the traders.

Research Paper on Corona Virus : Currency Notes may carry infection

In the wake of ongoing Corona virus pandemic and other infectious diseases, the mass circulation of currency notes which are being used for any purchase or sale in the market is very harmful. It is important to clarify whether currency notes are a potential carrier for viruses including Covid or Various credible studies have revealed that currency notes carry major risk of containing various virus which may lead to number of infectious diseases. In the wake of current Corona virus and for other precautionary reasons, we have requested Govt. for an early clarification.

It is in the public domain that The currency notes are most vulnerable to health of people and are easy carrier of communicable diseases and as such a proper investigation is all the more needed and the Government should bring out a comprehensive policy to promote alternative mode of payments including digital payments coupled with incentives and benefits to encourage more and more people for adoption and acceptance of alternate mode of payments in the larger interest of health of the Countrymen.

 We would further like to add that corona virus is an infectious disease which may spread by close contact of any person infected with such virus. Even if due precautions are taken, yet avoidance of cash usage can not be avoided and as such it becomes one of the most easy carrier for spreading any virus. Therefore, immediate steps should be taken to check spreading of any virus through currency notes.

It’s a fact that currency notes carry micro-organisms that can cause diseases and infections. Experts have warned that several diseases, including urinary and respiratory tract infections, skin infections and recurrent meningitis, are being transmitted through currency notes. They can also contribute to causing septicaemia and toxic shock syndrome.